Update: Avian Influenza (by Michael Chong)

Michael Chong writes an update about the current state of Avian Influenza. More information about the threat can be found in our May issue.

A recent concern of the World Health Organization (WHO) is the scene of a natural disaster waiting to occur. We observe and hear the sad stories of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and hurricanes that devastate whole towns and force thousands of people to evacuate their homes. Yet a deadlier presence is already lurking about the human population. Its stealth allows it to attack without any forewarning and inflict sickness one person at a time. Collectively, this is called the influenza virus. Smaller than the eye can see, it is hard to detect until it is too late. What’s worse is the unpredictability of its impact on humans and animals alike. The virus itself can cause a slight fever and a sore throat, or can lead to death.

The WHO has raised awareness on the evolution of the influenza virus, and possible consequences of a virulent strain. Most troubling is the prospect that the avian influenza will jump from bird populations into the human species in a way similar to other diseases that came from animal species such as AIDS. The WHO believes that this jump may cause the next influenza pandemic. The secret of the virus’ success is in its ability to be easily transmitted between hosts. All that is needed is a sneeze or a cough to send thousands of these viruses into the air.

Using past influenza pandemics as a basis for extrapolation, the WHO attempted to estimate the number of deaths the virus could cause. However, a unanimous range could not be predicted. The reason is data from the 1968 Asian epidemic and also the 1918 Spanish Flu can be misleading. Adding to the pro side of the debate, technology has advanced considerably and medical facilities are better equipped today than 30 years ago. On the other hand, travel between different countries around the world is so much easier, increasing the chance of transmittance of the virus to foreign land. A medical tug-of-war tries to balance the two arguments. In addition, there are factors humans cannot control that add to the difficulty, such as the nature of the strain. Assuming a very virulent strain, the death rate could be much higher, while a moderate one will be less damaging.

Scientists have given mortality numbers from 2 to 50 million for the next pandemic. Although the range is very large, there is one thing for certain, whether the death toll is 2 million or 50 million, there will be many sick people and many deaths. As a result, the WHO has stepped up preparation for the onset of an influenza pandemic. Knowing that it cannot be evaded, the only way to make sure we can keep the majority healthy is to monitor the virus very closely. That being said, plans have been made for countries, especially those high risk nations in Asia. Preparation procedures involve a slew of things from money allotment to research for antiviral drugs and vaccines. A report issued by WHO clearly outlines all the details, including steps to take during and after the pandemic. Hopefully nations will follow the WHO’s recommendations and reduce the result of the inevitable.

As to when the virus will emerge, it is completely uncertain. To scientists, it could be tomorrow, in a month or even another few years before something very virulent appears. But when it does come, we shall be ready.

Sources

“Avian Influenza.” World Health Organization. 1 January 2005. <http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/en/>.

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